Petrol Prices to Rise in October 2025: Here’s How Much Aussies Will Pay Per Litre

Australian pump prices are set to lift in October 2025, driven by higher global crude benchmarks, refinery margins, shipping costs, and excise indexation, with metro averages in NSW, VIC, and QLD forecast to move into the low $2 range for regular unleaded and regional areas often higher due to freight and weaker discounting cycles . The pricing pressure coincides with persistent cost-of-living strain, so motorists should plan refuelling around weekly fuel cycles and consider targeted savings strategies to blunt the increase at the bowser .

Why prices are rising

• Global crude volatility: Tight OPEC-plus supply and geopolitical shipping disruptions raise feedstock costs and tanker freight rates, pushing up terminal gate prices that flow to retail pumps within days to weeks depending on inventory turnover .
• Refining and margins: Complex refinery utilization and maintenance windows can widen crack spreads, lifting wholesale petrol cost beyond crude movements during demand peaks in Asia-Pacific markets .
• Domestic excise indexation: Australia’s fuel excise is indexed twice yearly to inflation, which can add cents per litre when CPI-linked adjustments occur, compounding international cost pressures into the retail price floor .

Expected state prices in October

The following outlook reflects common metropolitan patterns where Sydney, Melbourne, and Brisbane typically price above regional cycle lows, with Queensland often slightly cheaper but narrowing gaps during broad upswings in wholesale costs . Regional towns usually sit higher due to freight, lower competition, and less pronounced discounting cycles across independent retailers .

• New South Wales: $2.05 per litre expected October average vs about $1.88 in September, a lift of roughly 17 cents per litre as global and domestic inputs reprice .
• Victoria: $2.02 per litre expected vs about $1.85 in September, up roughly 17 cents per litre with similar metro cycle dynamics to Sydney but tighter inner-city competition .
• Queensland: $1.96 per litre expected vs about $1.80 in September, up roughly 16 cents per litre, with historical subsidy effects partly offset by wholesale increases and cycle timing .
• Western Australia: $1.99 per litre expected vs about $1.82 in September, up roughly 17 cents per litre, noting Perth’s regulated weekly cycle still transmits wholesale shifts into pump prices .
• South Australia: $2.00 per litre expected vs about $1.84 in September, up roughly 16 cents per litre, with Adelaide’s cycle retaining sharp peaks and troughs that reward timing .

How the fuel cycle affects timing

Most capitals follow discount–restore cycles where prices fall progressively for one to two weeks, then spike in a single day as retailers restore margins, with cycle length and amplitude varying by city and competition density . Savers target the cycle troughs—typically late in the discount phase—then avoid refuelling on restoration days where jumps can exceed 20–30 cents per litre in a few hours . Apps aggregating real-time station prices help pinpoint local troughs and identify outliers undercutting the area average during rising phases .

Budget impact and flow-through

Higher petrol prices lift household transport costs, particularly for commuters and small businesses reliant on vans and utes, with cascading effects on delivery fees and some fresh food logistics where diesel and petrol costs are meaningful inputs . Short-run inflation pressure can tick up when fuel rises quickly, although headline effects may unwind if global crude retraces or if the Australian dollar strengthens against the U.S. dollar, easing import costs at the terminal gate . Households can partially offset by consolidating trips, maintaining tyre pressure, and driving smoothly to reduce fuel burn 5–10 percent compared to aggressive acceleration and braking patterns .

Practical savings strategies

• Time the cycle: Fill near troughs, top-up lightly during peaks, and use price apps to locate below-median stations within a 5–10 km radius to avoid detours that erase savings .
• Stack discounts: Combine supermarket fuel dockets, loyalty cents-off, and targeted app promotions where available, noting that stacking rules vary by retailer and state .
• Maintain vehicles: Correct tyre pressure, timely servicing, clean air filters, and wheel alignment can collectively save several cents per kilometre on fuel burn over a month .
• Choose octane wisely: Use the manufacturer’s recommended octane; buying higher than required rarely improves economy enough to justify the premium at current spreads .
• Consider off-peak commuting: Shift flexible trips to avoid congestion, since stop–start traffic materially worsens consumption on urban cycles .

Relief options to watch

Targeted relief, when offered, typically arrives via state announcements such as temporary concessions, rebates, or transport fare offsets, as well as retailer-led discounts tied to loyalty platforms during promotional windows . Monitoring government advisories and major retailer apps can surface limited-time cents-per-litre reductions or bundle offers on groceries and fuel that improve effective pump price . Where available, regional motorists can compare independent stations that sometimes lag in passing through wholesale increases, offering short windows of cheaper fills during rising markets .

Looking ahead

If crude and shipping pressures persist into late spring, elevated pump prices may linger, but rapid wholesale declines can translate to retail falls as cycles progress and competition erodes restored margins at the peak . A stronger Australian dollar, improved refinery uptime, or a loosening of OPEC-plus targets would relieve terminal gate prices, while further CPI-driven excise indexation would work in the opposite direction at the next adjustment window . Until market relief emerges, disciplined refuelling timing, vehicle efficiency, and discount stacking remain the most reliable tools to contain monthly fuel spend through October .